Global Memory: Cycle is still elevated, but beware of the long-term threat from China

Bernstein updates its memory & industry models (HBM, DRAM, NAND, Samsung, SK hynix, Micron, SanDisk & KIOXIA), maintains Outperform on Samsung, SK hynix, Micron & SanDisk and Underperform on KIOXIA, and recently initiated on CXMT with Outperform. We revise down the size of the HBM price hike in CY2027 as HBM4 supply difficulties and weak signals from SK hynix's HBM production location lead us to delay the shift from HBM3E to HBM4; HBM will therefore remain less profitable than conventional DRAM in CY2027. We model half of Rubin Ultra de-specced from 12-hi to 8-hi. Conventional memory prices rise high-teens to 20% QoQ in 3QCY26 and HSD% in 4QCY26; the CY2027 shortage persists with LTA price caps limiting further increases;