Novo Nordisk A/S (NOVOb.CO): Looking for an answer to the semaglutide LOE

Morgan Stanley note on Novo Nordisk A/S (NOVOb.CO; Underweight, price target DKK 250) following the Capital Markets Day (CMD). The CMD provided some clarity on management's mid-term growth ambition and pipeline, but questions remain on 2027 sales growth (MS and consensus +2% CC) and the management of the semaglutide LOE (innovation pricing, remaining tail, life cycle management). Management guided to top-line growth broadly in line with peers, i.e. ~mid-single-digit CAGR 2026-2030, broadly in line with consensus, but did not explicitly commit to 2027 growth. The commitment to keep operating margin flat at ~41% by 2030 is better than our expectations but implies downside to consensus (3% downside to company consensus 2030 adj. EBIT, 10% downside to VA consensus). The aspiration for >DKK 150bn (>US$23bn) risk-adjusted pipeline contribution by 2035 is broadly in line with consensus but may not be sufficient to compensate for the semaglutide LOE;