摩根士丹利认为，中国电商行业正进入结构性低增长阶段，预计2026至2030年平台GMV复合增速仅3.2%，2030年进一步放缓至2.6%。消费疲弱、线上渗透率提升空间收窄，平台只能更多依靠抢夺份额维持增长，因而必须在流量、补贴与商家激励上投入更多，增长更难获得、也更昂贵。与典型成熟行业不同，中国电商并未出现整合迹象，现金充裕的平台在守住核心业务的同时相互跨界，从即时零售、外卖到本地生活与海外扩张，竞争强度可能长期维持高位，行业成熟本应带来的利润率修复未必兑现。报告因此判断，低估值倍数未必提供足够下行保护，并将拼多多与美团评级由增持下调至中性；阿里巴巴凭借AI与云的差异化仍是首选。个股偏好顺序为阿里、携程、拼多多、美团、快手、京东。
The report argues that China e-commerce is entering a phase of structurally lower growth but not of reduced competition. Morgan Stanley forecasts platform GMV CAGR of just 3.2% over 2026-30, slowing to 2.6% by 2030, as weak consumption and fading online penetration gains limit organic growth and platforms increasingly rely on taking share. With less growth to go around, platforms must spend more on traffic, subsidies and merchant incentives to defend their positions. Unlike typical mature industries, Chinese e-commerce shows few signs of consolidation: cash-rich platforms defend core businesses while expanding into each other's markets, from Instashopping and food delivery to local services and overseas, so competitive intensity may remain elevated and the margin recovery usually associated with maturity may not materialize. Slower growth may therefore not translate into stronger FCF conversion or higher capital returns, challenging the assumption that low historical P/E multiples prov