本报告为跨资产固定收益供给追踪。AI相关企业信用供给仍处高位，但利率上行对低资质借款人的压力加大，因此信用策略团队由偏好高收益转向偏好投资级，认为投资级较高收益更安全。投资级供给仍集中于科技与通信板块，但随着超大规模云厂商转向更"程序化"的发行节奏，新增供给的吸收将更为可控。过去三个月利差变动与净供给基本脱钩；无论是过去12个月还是过去1个月，政府债券净供给相对更高的市场并未对应更高收益率。各市场政府债券供给与收益率持续分化，通胀、货币政策与期限溢价仍是收益率更重要的驱动因素。报告以彭博固定收益指数存量变动作为净新增债务供给的高频代理指标，并按地区、评级、行业与期限对美国、欧元区、英国、日本国债及美元、欧元、英镑企业信用供给进行拆解。
Global fixed income supply tracker. AI-related corporate credit supply remains elevated, but we see IG as safer than HY as higher rates pressure weaker-quality borrowers, and our credit strategy team now prefers IG over HY. IG supply remains concentrated in Tech and Communications, but more "programmatic" hyperscaler issuance should make absorption of new issuance more manageable. Government bond supply and yields continue to diverge across markets, with inflation, monetary policy and term premia remaining more important drivers of yields; higher relative government bond net issuance has not been associated with higher yields over the past 12 months or the past month. Over the past three months, spread moves have been largely disconnected from net issuance. We use changes in Bloomberg fixed income indices' amount outstanding as a high-frequency proxy for net new debt supply and break down DM government bond and USD/EUR/GBP corporate credit supply by region, rating, sector and maturity.