HSBC (0005.HK/HSBA.L): 3Q26 First Take: Inline with softer revenues offset by lower impairments; up to $1bn buyback announced

HSBC reported 3Q26 underlying PBT of US$10.0bn, 4% below GSe and inline with company-compiled consensus. Banking NII came in -3%/-2% vs GSe/Consensus with non-banking NII -3%/-1%; the shortfall reflected competitive deposit pressure and higher beta pass-through in Hong Kong and the UK, plus softer insurance-related wealth fees qoq. Support came from lower impairments, with credit cost of 31bps vs 40bps/41bps GSe/Consensus, and costs inline. ROTE ex-notables was 18.2%. NNM accelerated to US$41bn, including US$38bn from Asia, and wealth balances rose to US$1.60tn. CET1 was 13.9%; HSBC declared an interim dividend of US$0.10 and a share buyback of up to US$1bn, above GSe of US$0.5bn. FY26 guidance was unchanged: Banking NII at least US$46bn, ECL charges ~45bps, ~1% target-basis cost growth and CET1 of 14-14.5%, with Basel 3.1 expected to add 40-50bps to CET1 from 1 Jan 2027. Overall results were in line with consensus but modestly below our expectations;