Sinotruk (3808.HK): Key takeaways from SDHI investor day and management meetings

We attended Shandong Heavy Industry Group's investor day in Jinan on November 3, where the group presented its 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026-2030 and an updated strategy for Sinotruk Group, before meeting Sinotruk-H and Sinotruk Jinan (000951.SZ, Not Covered) separately. The key message was that exports and new energy vehicles remain the main growth engines, while near-term domestic demand is softer. Overseas order visibility has extended into 1Q27, with 1Q27 overseas orders close to 60,000 units versus about 49,000 units of overseas sales in 1Q26; October exports were about 19,500 units, broadly stable against roughly 19,000 units per month from July to October. The Middle East remains constrained by shipping rather than demand, with local demand of about 3,000 units per month against shipments of just over 1,000 units, implying a backlog of 7,000-8,000 units that management expects to ease from end-2026 to 1Q27. The group targets 800,000 vehicle sales and revenue above Rmb300bn by 203