Fraport (FRAG.DE): Expect Steady 3Q26 EBITDA; Focus would be on FCF

We expect Fraport to deliver steady 3Q26 results with EBITDA of c€583m (down marginally YoY), supported by resilient summer travel demand across its international portfolio while Frankfurt Airport traffic remained subdued due to geopolitical headwinds. Lima Airport (+6%), the Greek airports (+5%) and Brazil Airport (+c4%) reported steady passenger growth in 3Q. We believe focus would be on FCF in 3Q26, which would benefit from seasonally strong cash generation, although ongoing cash payments for recently completed terminals continue to limit full cash flow conversion. We estimate FCF of c.€270m (c€370m in 3Q25). We expect Fraport to maintain its FY26e financial outlook, while investors would look for commentary on medium-term FCF generation and FY27e traffic outlook. Our EBITDA estimates remain broadly unchanged for FY26/27e. We maintain our Buy rating (TP unchanged at €83) and open a positive short-term view on earnings and FCF expectations.