The Oil Manual: Exceptional Shipping Cost and Its Impact on Brent Prices

Gulf and Russian crude supply is still 5.5 mb/d below last year, onshore crude stocks are at multi-year lows and tanker attacks have risen from <4 to ~11 a week. Tanker rates are at records in every size class. A VLCC from the Middle East to China costs ~$34/bbl, against $1-3/bbl over the last five years. Longer voyages, ship-to-ship transfers, ships in the wrong place and a sanctioned fleet (17% of dwt) have all cut the supply of available tankers. Brent grades land in Rotterdam $10-15/bbl cheaper than long-haul crudes, which leaves December Brent at ~$106/bbl well underpinned. NW Europe crude imports look ~0.5 mb/d lower m/m in October, and refinery maintenance is low. We add $5/bbl to our Dated Brent forecast for 4Q26 and 1Q27.