Analyzing the potential impact from the proposed solar tech export control; reiterate Buy on Maxwell as bear case scenario appears already priced in

On October 16, 2026, China's Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Science and Technology jointly proposed revising the prohibited/restricted export technology list to add 12 solar technologies, spanning rod polysilicon, granular polysilicon, ingot pulling, wafer cutting and cell production including TOPCon, HJT, BC and perovskite. Large-scale polysilicon production, large-sized thin wafer production and perovskite cell production technology would be prohibited for export, while final solar value-chain products are not included; public consultation runs from October 16 to November 15, 2026. Goldman Sachs views the proposed framework as more positive than the market's expectation of a potential export ban. Solar equipment shares had already fallen about 20% on average in April and a further about 40% in July on tightening export-control concerns. Under the base case, Maxwell's Rmb270 target price is based on 29X 2027E EV/EBITDA;