高盛点评2026年8月澳大利亚劳动力市场报告。8月失业率上升16个基点至4.65%（高盛预测4.4%，市场预期4.5%），为2021年10月以来最高；劳动参与率上升19个基点至67.1%。新增就业3.95万人，高于预期的3万人，但增量完全由兼职就业（+4.58万人）贡献，全职就业减少0.63万人。总工时环比回升0.7%，同比增速加快至1.7%；不充分就业率下降15个基点至6.2%。高盛认为该报告整体显示劳动力市场正逐步、有序地走弱，失业率已仅处于澳联储NAIRU估计值4.6%的水平；预计2026年下半年劳动力市场条件将进一步走软，到2027年下半年失业率将升至4.8%。
Bottom line: The August labour force report was a touch weaker than expected. The unemployment rate rose 16bp to 4.65% (GSe: 4.4%; BBG: 4.5%), alongside a 19bp increase in the participation rate to 67.1% (GSe/BBG: 66.9%). Employment increased 39.5k (GSe: +30k; BBG: +20k), though the gain was driven entirely by part-time employment (+45.8k) with full-time employment (-6.3k) edging lower. Hours worked rebounded (+0.7%mom) and the underemployment rate declined 15bp to 6.2%. On balance, we view today's report as consistent with a gradual and orderly softening in the labour market. While the unemployment rate was higher than we expected, monthly data can be volatile and growth in employment and hours worked was firm. The rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6% extends the gradual uptrend evident through the first half of 2026, and is now only just at the RBA's NAIRU estimate (4.6%). Looking ahead, we expect labour market conditions to soften further over 2H2026, with the unemployment rate ris