摩根大通新兴市场外汇日报（2026年9月24日）汇总当日新兴市场货币的交易盘面与观点。南非储备银行如期加息25个基点至7.25%，并重回鹰派立场，大幅上调近期通胀预测，预计通胀于11月见顶、同比5.7%，同时因二季度GDP偏弱将2026年增长预测下调至1.2%；经济师认为11月再加息概率约25%，兰特虽反应平淡但在情绪转向之前仍偏脆弱。土耳其里拉延续每周约1800点的管理式贬值路径，在零售美元需求受控、客户资金持续流入的前提下，维持里拉多头并预期实际升值。波兰兹罗提因能源价格上涨及对俄地缘政治风险升温而走弱至4.40附近，已平掉多头敞口。匈牙利福林因柴油供应担忧与美债收益率上行单日大跌近2%，各板块普遍卖出。捷克克朗因央行立场不及市场鹰派预期，料将继续跑输区域货币。此外还涉及卢布、罗马尼亚列伊、以色列谢克尔与坚戈的盘面观察。
JPMorgan EM FX Daily Report for 24 September 2026 reviews emerging market currencies. The SARB delivered a 25bp hike to 7.25%, returned to its hawkish tone and revised near-term inflation forecasts materially higher, now projecting inflation to peak at 5.7% y/y in November, while cutting the 2026 growth forecast to 1.2% on a weaker 2Q GDP print; economists assign a 25% probability of another hike in November, and the rand remains vulnerable until sentiment shifts. USDTRY continues to trade along the managed depreciation path of around 1,800 pips per week, and we remain long TRY given contained retail FX demand and continued client inflows. EURPLN moved sharply towards 4.40 on higher energy prices and heightened Russia-related political risk, prompting us to cover our long PLN exposure. HUF fell nearly 2% on diesel worries and higher US yields, with selling across all sectors. We stay cautious on CZK, expecting it to underperform regional peers. Price action in RUB, RON, ILS and KZT is