我们与熟悉字节跳动旗下汽水音乐的专家进行了交流，讨论用户增长、变现策略与内容定位。专家称，随着音乐流媒体渗透率已高，汽水音乐增长放缓；截至2026年7月DAU超5000万、MAU约1.5亿，公司目标2026年底DAU达6000万，同比约增长50%，低于2025财年的翻倍增速。抖音仍是核心流量引擎，贡献逾80%的用户增长与App激活，且主要来自短视频内嵌链接导流，而非付费广告。商业模式正由订阅转向流量驱动的广告变现，平台因此更倾向自制、开放平台及AI音乐，以较低内容成本提升 engagement；外购版权仍覆盖约80%的有效曲库，AI原生音乐仅约占消费的2%，AI改编曲增长更快，但生成模型能力及高质量人声训练数据授权仍是瓶颈。专家对腾讯音乐的前景偏谨慎，认为其用户分层与定向不足；对网易云音乐以“音乐爱好者”为核心的品牌定位更为积极。
We interacted with an expert familiar with ByteDance's Soda Music to discuss user growth, monetization and content positioning. Soda Music had over 50mn DAU and about 150mn MAU as of July 2026 and targets 60mn DAU by end-2026E, implying roughly 50% year-on-year growth versus a doubling in FY25. Growth is slowing as music-streaming penetration is already high, with incremental users increasingly coming from share gains against Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music. Douyin remains the key traffic engine, driving more than 80% of user growth and app activations, mainly through native content-driven redirect links rather than paid advertising. Soda Music is evolving from a subscription-centric model toward a traffic-driven, advertising-led business, giving it incentives to prioritize self-produced, open-platform and AI-related content to improve engagement at lower content costs. Externally licensed content still accounts for about 80% of effective copyright coverage, while AI-native music