Global Semicap Tracker (Aug 26): Japan SPE +50% YoY

This tracker analyzes the billings data released by SEAJ, whose members are Japanese suppliers and represent roughly 25% of the global wafer fab equipment (WFE) market. Japan SPE saw year-over-year growth in August, with the three-month average billing relatively stable and the single-month figure down slightly sequentially. By equipment type, Japan front-end, assembly, and testing equipment revenue all grew year over year, with testing equipment showing particularly strong growth. Based on regression analysis, the SEAJ data suggests upside for Advantest and downside for TEL relative to consensus in the September quarter. The report forecasts the global WFE market to keep growing in CY2026 and CY2027, driven mainly by DRAM and NAND spending, with Japanese equipment companies set to benefit from the recovery in memory capex. On recommendations, the firm maintains Outperform on Disco, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Kokusai and Lasertec within Japan semi;