野村于2026年10月14日举办专家电话会议,讨论中国大众市场消费趋势,聚焦万达广场等面向大众市场的购物中心网络(约140家,主要位于华东二三线城市及一线城市远郊)。专家指出,9月这些商场整体表现回暖,销售额与客流量同比录得中双位数增长,而7-8月为低个位数至低双位数下滑;回暖主因是2025年9月基数较低、当年中秋落在9月且中秋国庆促销活动较多,以及商场升级、生鲜与零食等新业态带动客流。分品类看,食品饮料保持中高个位数增长,服装由跌转升,生活方式类(黄金珠宝、电子、潮流玩具)改善,而体验式消费开始转弱。不过专家对四季度销售仍持谨慎偏悲观态度,因大众消费情绪疲弱、同业竞争加剧及空置店铺问题持续。首选标的方面,继续偏好安踏、百胜中国及美的。
Nomura hosted a channel check call on 14 October 2026 with an expert on China's mass-market consumption trend, focused on Wanda Plazas and other mass-market-targeted shopping mall networks (around 140 malls, mainly in tier-2, 3 and 4 cities of Eastern China and remote areas of tier-1 cities). The expert noted that overall performance recovered in September, with both sales value and foot traffic increasing by mid-teens% y-y, versus a low-teens%/low-single-digit% decline during Jul-Aug. The recovery was mainly driven by a low comparison base in Sep-2025, the Mid-Autumn Festival falling in September alongside multiple marketing campaigns for the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, and effective mall upgrades with fresh food and snack formats supporting foot traffic. By segment, food & beverage grew by high-single-digit%, apparel rebounded from a decline to growth, lifestyle categories (gold/jewelry, electronics, trendy toys) improved, while experiential consumption started to decline.