China Cosmetics Sector: Expert call takeaways on Double 11 preview and China beauty outlook

Double 11 this year marks a shift from duration expansion to efficiency, with both Tmall and Douyin moving their core promotional windows to post-Golden Week. Douyin is increasingly concentrating traffic on top-tier KOLs and short-video commerce, reflecting brands' preference for more predictable conversion and ROI visibility amid disciplined ad spending. Subsidies remain elevated, with Tmall budgeting RMB14-15bn (+10-20% YoY) and Douyin allocating c.RMB11bn, but support is becoming more performance-linked through commission rebates, while merchants continue to shoulder significant direct-discount costs. Promotional intensity remains above both last year's Double 11 and this year's 618, though the expert sees 2026 as the peak of the current promotional cycle, with discounting likely to moderate thereafter. China's online cosmetics GMV reached nearly RMB400bn in 9M26, with brand performance becoming increasingly polarized: international brands generally remain resilient, with several pr