Calendar 3Q EPS Previews (TSCO, ORLY, BOOT, FND & VVV) – Who Has Initiatives to Outperform the Macro Right Now?

Citi's US Retailing - Hardlines report previews calendar 3Q EPS for TSCO, ORLY, BOOT, FND and VVV. As the group enters calendar 3Q earnings season, fundamentals have been resilient but expectations have been lowered; the group has lagged the S&P 500 in recent months and valuations now sit below 5-year averages for nearly all coverage. Main calls: ORLY (Buy) should see a clean 3Q beat and modest guidance raise on steady share gains (3Q SSS +5.5% vs Street +4.2%; maintain $106 TP); TSCO (Buy) turnaround is slowly progressing with 3Q on track for a beat and slight guidance raise (3Q SSS +0.3% vs Street -1.4%, EPS $0.43 vs Street $0.41; raise TP to $38); BOOT (Buy) estimates are lowered to embed more conservative SSS planning (F2Q SSS +1%, EPS $1.60; lower TP to $180) though risk/reward looks favorable; for FND (Neutral; lower TP to $49) and VVV (Neutral;