Behind-the-Meter (BTM) Distributed Power: Bring Your Own Generation: Compendium of Day 1 to Day 4 Deep Dive Notes

JPM View: We believe that behind-the-meter (BTM) distributed power offers a differentiated growth profile and potentially more durable earnings stream in our OFS coverage universe, though markets have yet to fully underwrite or differentiate among providers. This compendium of the four-part BTM Distributed Power Deep Dive series frames the U.S. power supply-demand outlook and the opportunity for OFS companies. The U.S. is trending toward a structural power shortfall: utility load-growth forecasts have jumped from ~24 GW to ~166 GW since 2023, implying a ~50–80 GW gap by 2030, with data centers driving ~55% of incremental demand and other sources (reshoring, crypto, heat pumps, O&G electrification, EV charging) broadening the demand base. BTM's core advantage is speed-to-power (roughly 12–18 months vs. ~5 years for grid interconnection), and 50%+ of incremental data center capacity (2028+) could be BTM-powered, with natural gas positioned as the winner. We decompose the offering into a