McDonald's Corp (MCD.N): 3Q26 First Bite: Better Than Feared US Comp; EPS Beat on G&A and Other OpEx

McDonald's 3Q26 aggregate comparable sales and bottom-line results beat Citi and Street estimates, though the components were not especially encouraging. US same-store sales fell 0.2%, better than the feared 0.5% decline expected by Citi and the Street, while International Operated Markets grew 1.4% versus Street at 2.0%. The EPS beat came primarily from other operating expense, roughly $0.14/$0.15 better than Citi/Street on refranchising gains, and lower G&A, about $0.05 better. The only change to 2026 guidance was capex lowered to the low end of the prior range. We expect the shares to trade higher near term given the year-to-date stock performance and valuation pullback, with swing factors tied to management commentary on a US national value re-start below $4, negotiations with franchisees on remodels, and any material swing in 4QTD same-store sales across the US and IOM. We maintain Buy with a $295 target price based on 14.5x NTM EBITDA, implying about a 1.05x relative multiple ver