Biomarin Pharmaceutical Inc (BMRN.O) Risk Reward Update

Morgan Stanley has updated its Risk Reward for BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc (BMRN.O), maintaining an Overweight rating and a $124 price target. The PT is derived from a discounted cash flow analysis assuming a WACC of 7.4% and 2.5% terminal growth. The update reflects a 2H26 revenue mix favoring 4Q, with the Bull Case PT trimmed to $189 from $190. The three scenarios are: Bull $189 (FY30 total revenues of $6.3B, comprising $2B Voxzogo, $3B in ERT therapies and $1.3B Galafold and P+O), Base $124 (FY30 total revenues of $5B, with $1.1B Voxzogo, ~$3B ERT and $1B Galafold and P+O), and Bear $56 (material erosion of the Voxzogo/Enzyme business and slow YoY growth in ERT therapies). We forecast 2027 revenue of $4.36bn;