非洲前沿（Africa Edge）

August CPI across the Africa Edge economies was mixed, but the broader signal is one of stabilization in monthly inflation, with residual pressure concentrated in food while core/non-food inflation remained subdued on broadly stable FX. Ghana, Egypt and Angola saw contained momentum on improving food supply and softer imported inflation; Nigeria remains primarily food-driven, and Kenya, Uganda and Zambia continue to see upward pressure from staple foods, with El Niño-related weather risks in parts of East and Southern Africa a key upside risk. In Nigeria, headline inflation was unchanged at 15.4%oya with momentum cooling to 0.7% m/m; we expect the CBN to hold policy at 26.5% given sticky inflation, high liquidity (around NGN2.3trn) and expansionary fiscal policy ahead of the January elections. Angola's BNA cut its policy rate by 100bp to 14.75%, its third consecutive cut, as headline inflation eased to 8.8%oya;