Walmart, DoorDash, Uber, Restaurants: Walmart enters Restaurant Delivery...can it "deliver" the economics?

Bernstein takes a cross-sector look at Walmart's entry into restaurant delivery. Walmart has announced partnerships to deliver for Subway, Dunkin and Papa Johns since the summer, positioning the offering as a lower-cost alternative for both customers and QSRs: it charges a lower take rate (vs. our estimate of low-to-mid teens for large chains on 3P platforms) to incentivize menu price parity, charges non-members a flat $5-$10 delivery fee, and offers free delivery to Walmart+ members when a restaurant order is bundled with an eligible Walmart order and meets the minimum spend. The offering is enabled by Walmart's footprint and proximity to restaurants: 90% of QSRs are within 3 miles of a Walmart and 85% of delivery routes pass by QSRs. Across nine large chains analyzed, 62%-77% of locations have a Walmart within 3 miles and 79%-90% within 5 miles. We estimate Spark driver last-mile cost of ~$8.00 per order;