Walmart, DoorDash, Uber, Restaurants: Walmart enters Restaurant Delivery...can it "deliver" the economics?

Walmart is an unusual suspect in restaurant delivery, but since the summer it has announced partnerships to deliver for Subway, Dunkin and Papa Johns, with more to come. Walmart positions the offering as a lower-cost alternative for both customers and QSRs: it charges QSRs a lower take rate (versus our estimate of low-to-mid teens charged by third-party platforms for large chains) to incentivize menu price parity online, and charges non-members a flat $5-$10 delivery fee, while Walmart+ members could receive free delivery when a restaurant order is bundled with an eligible Walmart order and meets the applicable minimum spend. This is enabled by Walmart's store footprint: 90% of QSRs are within 3 miles of a Walmart and 85% of delivery routes pass by QSRs, which largely checks out in our co-location analysis (62%-77% of the nine large chains' locations have a Walmart within 3 miles and 79%-90% within 5 miles). Panda Express, Little Caesars, Jersey Mike's and KFC look like the most compel