Aluminium End-Use Tracker

We maintain our 0-3-month aluminium price forecast of $3,000/t and remain broadly neutral in the near term. While low visible inventories and elevated geopolitical risks should continue to provide downside support, the outlook for next year remains challenged by Indonesian-led supply growth and a muted demand environment. We expect the combination of Indonesian capacity ramp-ups, ex-China additions and restarts, and incremental production creep within China to contribute to a looser market balance into 2027. As a result, despite supportive near-term fundamentals, we see limited scope for a sustained upside without a meaningful improvement in underlying demand, particularly from China. Global macro conditions remain mixed: manufacturing PMIs across major developed economies remain in expansionary territory, but the recovery continues to be driven by AI- and technology-related capex, while broad-based weakness in China weighs on global end-use metals consumption. China soft October PMI r