摩根大通覆盖皇冠控股（CCK.US），维持「增持」评级，2027年12月目标价121美元，对应2027年EBITDA的8.5倍，较竞争对手Ball折价1.5倍。3Q26业绩超市场预期，但4Q26指引低于预期，股价盘中一度接近106美元，当日收于114美元上方。3Q26合并罐销量增长6%，EBIT却持平至下滑，受约0.10美元通胀成本、0.03美元启动成本及Transit业务0.07美元盈利下降拖累；公司可通过成本转嫁条款在明年4月1日回溯中收回约0.10美元/股。预计2026年EPS由7.80美元升至8.45美元，增长8%，其中5个百分点来自股本下降、3个百分点来自税率下降，经营利润基本持平。公司每年或回购5亿至7亿美元股票，股本年降约5%；2026-2027年自由现金流收益率约7%-7.5%。
J.P. Morgan rates Crown Holdings Overweight with a December 2027 price target of $121, based on 8.5x 2027E EV/EBITDA, a 1.5x discount to Ball Corp. Crown's 3Q26 results beat Consensus, but its 4Q26 earnings guide was below Consensus, and the shares traded near $106 intraday before finishing just above $114. Consolidated can volume rose 6% in 3Q26, yet EBIT was flat to down as inflationary costs of about $0.10, start-up costs of about $0.03 and lower Transit segment earnings of $0.07 weighed on results; cost pass-through clauses may allow Crown to recoup about $0.10 per share through the April 1 contract cost look-back. We expect EPS to grow 8% in 2026 from $7.80 to $8.45, with five points from a lower share count and three points from a lower tax rate, while operating earnings are roughly flat. Crown could spend $500 million-$700 million annually on buybacks, reducing the share count by about 5% a year, and offers a 7%-7.5% free cash flow yield.