General Motors (GM): 3Q26 Model Update Post Management Follow-Up; Lower EBIT Further on Higher Commodity Headwinds, Though Raise EPS on Strong Buyback Pace; Maintain OW, $105 Dec 2027 PT

We maintain our OW rating on GM following an in-line 3Q26 print with a mixed underlying complexion, as stronger volumes offset softer price/mix, though as we had previewed, 2027 earnings visibility remains clouded by the recent step-up in commodity/logistics and memory costs, and potential uncertainty around pricing/mix in non-FPUPs. The updated 4Q26 guide was directionally consistent with our expectations, with the surprise being higher full year FCF (~$12 bn vs $10.5 bn prior) on tariff refund timing and lower capex. Into 2027, management continues to target revenue, margin, and EBIT growth, supported by next-generation Silverado/Sierra pricing and mix, software/services, Defense growth, further warranty and EV loss improvement, and potential fixed-cost efficiencies;