Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI.N): Lifting Valuation Following Larger-Than-Expected Project Sizes

We lift our target price to $35 from $34 to reflect the larger-than-expected sizes of SEC, Permian Link, and TGP 219S; we originally estimated ~$5bln for all three but the projects now appear to be trending to >$6bln. With the impending addition of TGP 219S, 6 major projects will comprise >70% of KMI's backlog through ~2030. We now estimate cumulative capex of $16bln in 2027-2030, up from $14bln prior, to reflect management's expected ~$4bln/y capex cadence; driving a ~6% EBITDA CAGR through 2030E. We expect major project additions from here to contribute to 2030+. In the near term, '27 growth may be subdued with as much as $400mm of opportunistic tailwinds potentially not recurring;