美银美林重申对欧莱雅(OREP.PA)的买入评级,目标价440欧元(ADR 100美元),现价374.40欧元。欧莱雅是美银"2026年25只首选股"之一并入选欧洲首选名单,当前25倍市盈率处于其历史区间(25-35倍)底部。我们认为2026年三季度业绩有望成为正面催化剂,将凸显其约6%内生增长(LFL)的可持续性,尽管面临更艰难的可比基数与中国复杂的消费环境。我们每月追踪约50项数据点判断全球美妆行业景气:三季度美国表现强劲、欧洲自近期疲软中改善、中国(含旅游零售)与二季度相当、其余市场受拉美拖累略走软。欧莱雅将于10月23日盘后公布三季度营收,我们预计调整后内生增长+6.1%,高于市场一致预期50个基点。过去两年公司EPS几乎零增长,受内生增长偏弱与汇兑逆风拖累;
BofA Securities reiterates its Buy rating on L'Oreal (OREP.PA) with a PO of €440/ADR US$100 versus a price of €374.40. L'Oreal is one of BofA's '25 stocks for 2026' and is on the Europe 1 list of top ideas; the stock trades at 25x P/E, the bottom of its historical 25-35x range. We think 3Q26 is likely a positive catalyst as it will highlight the sustainability of its ~6% LFL growth algo, despite lapping tougher comps and a complex China consumption backdrop. Tracking c.50 data points each month: in 3Q the US is very dynamic, the EU is improving from recent weakness, the China ecosystem (incl. travel retail) is similar to 2Q, and RoW is a bit softer dragged by LATAM. L'Oreal will report 3Q26 revenue after market on 23 October; we forecast 3Q26 adjusted LFL growth of +6.1%, 50bps above consensus. After almost no EPS growth over the last two years (weighed by softer LFL and a large FX headwind), with LFL improvement and FX no longer a drag, EPS growth should re-commence;