我们更新对石基信息2026年上半年业绩后的盈利预测。预计公司2026年核心净利润为7200万元，较2025年亏损1.66亿元实现扭亏，主要受收入同比增长5%（2025年为下降5%）及费用率改善驱动。我们基于两阶段DCF估值与EV/Sales估值各占一半，将12个月目标价由7.1元下调至6.6元，对应约15%的下行空间，维持"卖出"评级。当前估值偏高，2027年预期EV/Sales为6倍，而国内同业约4倍。1H26业绩低于我们及市场预期：收入同比仅增长1.6%（全年高盛预测+9%、彭博一致预期+14%），主要因酒店系统业务增速放缓（1H26同比+1.6%，2025年为+4.6%，占总收入44%）及商业供应链管理系统收入同比下滑2.9%（占总收入17%）。
We update our estimates for Shiji post 1H26 results. We now forecast Shiji's FY26E core net profit at Rmb72mn, a turnaround from -Rmb166mn loss in FY25, driven by +5% yoy revenue growth (vs. -5% in FY25) and improving expense ratio. We revise our 12-month TP to Rmb6.6 (from Rmb7.1) based on an equal mix of a 2-staged DCF valuation and EV/Sales multiple, implying -15% downside. The stock's current valuation looks stretched trading at 6x FY27E EV/sales (vs. ~4x for domestic peers). Shiji's 1H26 results were below our and market expectation. Revenue grew +1.6% yoy (vs. GSE +9% or Bloomberg consensus +14% for the full year) mainly due to slower-than-expected growth of the hotel system business (+1.6% yoy in 1H26 vs. +4.6% in FY25) accounting for 44% of total revenue and -2.9% yoy decline of commercial supply chain management system (17% of total revenue). Sales and marketing expense ratio remained largely flattish at 11.6% while G&A and R&D expense ratio improved -6pts/-4pts yoy to 24.5%/9