Nomura’s leading index of Asian exports

Nomura's leading index of Asian exports (NELI) rose sharply to a record high of 126.5 in November, signaling that Asia's export growth is set to accelerate further into year-end. NELI comprises nine components with a three-month lead time, has correctly predicted past major turning points and is less distorted by base effects than official export data. The strong pickup in the latest reading continues to be driven by tech-related indicators and the Shanghai containerized freight index, the latter reflecting buoyant transpacific demand and tightening vessel supply from typhoon disruptions and Panama Canal restrictions. The signal gels with our bullish outlook on Asia's export growth, underpinned by the sustained AI investment boom;