3Q26 Advance GDP: Sequential Rebound, Exports and Capex Lead the Way

The Korean economy regained sequential acceleration in 3Q26, with stronger exports and capex lifting growth above consensus, although the pullback in private consumption points to a less balanced recovery. Real GDP rose 3.4%Y (1.0%Q sa), versus 3.7%Y in 2Q26, above the 3.2% consensus and the BoK's 0.3%Q August forecast. Real exports increased 8.6%Y (2.3%Q), led by semiconductors and machinery & electrical equipment, while imports rose 7.0%Y, leaving net exports contributing 0.1pp. Facilities investment grew 9.4%Y (4.1%Q) on semi manufacturing equipment, construction investment rebounded 0.7%Q, and intellectual property investment rose 6.5%Y. Private consumption rose 1.1%Y but fell 0.2%Q, weighed by weaker vehicle and appliance spending, extreme heat and an equity market correction. Real GDI surged 18.8%Y on higher memory prices driven by AI demand. We see 2026 GDP growth around 3.6%, with scope for 3.7-3.9%, and expect the BoK to raise its forecast in November while retaining scope for