美银9月全球基金经理调查（调查期2026年9月4日至10日，190位管理5120亿美元的受访者参与）显示，投资者对宏观繁荣与AI资本开支扩张的信心仍强，但债券失序及民主党中期选举大胜风险上升。FMS现金比例由3.5%升至3.9%，为2026年3月以来最大月度升幅。宏观上，净8%预计全球增长加速，55%预计"不着陆"、38%预计"软着陆"、仅2%预计"硬着陆"，净33%认为企业过度投资，创历史新高。政策上，美联储被视为落后于曲线，2022年9月以来首次预期收益率曲线趋平，仅16%认为国债回购会压低收益率。最可能的中期选举结果为分裂国会（民主党众议院、共和党参议院，44%），民主党全面获胜概率升至31%，对应"收益率上、股市下"（45%）。
Sept BofA Global FMS shows investor conviction on macro boom & fast-paced AI capex still strong; but risks of disorderly bonds and DEM midterm sweep rising; FMS cash jumps from 3.5% to 3.9% as excess bullishness, which stymied summer risk upside, now fading. On Macro & Profits: net 8% predict acceleration of already-strong global growth; 55% predict "no landing", 38% "soft", 2% "hard"; most investors since Aug'21 predicting double-digit EPS growth next 12 months; net 33% say companies are overinvesting, a record. On Policy & Politics: Fed seen as behind-curve; first time since Sep'22 investors expect flatter yield curve; just 16% say Bessent bond buybacks will reduce Treasury yields; most likely midterm result seen as DEM House/GOP Senate (44%) but DEM sweep odds rising (31%); most likely reaction to DEM sweep = "yields up/stocks down" (45%). On Crowds, Risks & Events: most crowded trade = "long global semiconductors" (53%);