巴克莱发布中国AI跨资产主题研究，认为中国AI推进正从战略雄心转向落地执行，投资支持、基础设施与监管约束及初步应用信号，正对增长、汇率和信用产生差异化影响。政策目标为到2030年在100多个行业实现AI应用、渗透率达90%（2027年为70%），依托开源模型经济性与AI基础设施快速建设。行业规模上，信通院测算2025年核心AI产业规模1.2万亿元（同比+40%），2030年目标达10万亿元（2026-30年CAGR约53%）。资本开支方面，中国拟推出2万亿元数据中心投资计划，其中80%采购要求国产化，预计新增约50GW装机，2030年运营容量或达45GW。应用以制造业和ICT领先，大型企业领先，上市公司AI渗透率58%、生成式AI为21%。可持续性方面，电力与燃料供应充足不构成硬约束，水资源压力属局部问题。
China's AI push is shifting from ambition to execution. Investment support, and limited infrastructure and regulatory constraints, as well as early signals of adoption, are driving varied economic effects on growth, FX and credit. China's AI strategy reflects a national drive for technological leadership, with policymakers targeting AI adoption across more than 100 industries and a 90% penetration rate by 2030. The strategy is supported by open-model economics and a rapid buildout of public and private AI infrastructure. While macro evidence remains fragmented, we see signs of AI adoption, led by manufacturing and ICT, especially among larger corporates. Sustainability-related factors are set to support, not constrain, China's AI expansion. Adequate power, fuel supply, permitting and spare capacity should enable further AI infrastructure expansion, while water stress remains a localized issue. At the sector level, China TMTs are not only investing but beginning to show clearer commerci