德意志银行发布跨领域主题研究报告《下周……本周》，梳理下周全球重要经济数据与央行动向。报告指出，美国9月非农就业报告将是下周主要数据，同时公布ISM指数与咨商会消费者信心指数。通胀将成为全球主题：美国PCE、欧洲CPI初值以及日本东京CPI均将出炉。亚洲方面，中国PMI、日本央行短观调查及9月会议意见摘要、澳联储决议备受关注。该行美国经济学家预计9月非农新增4.5万人，低于8月的16.2万人，失业率维持4.1%，平均时薪环比增长0.3%不变；预计8月核心PCE环比增长0.27%，个人收入增长0.5%，消费增长0.6%；9月ISM制造业指数升至55.1，消费者信心指数升至91.0。欧洲方面，预计欧元区整体HICP同比3.75%，核心2.53%。日本东京核心CPI预计从1.8%升至2.2%，核心-核心通胀从2.0%升至2.5%。预计澳联储加息25个基点。
The US September jobs report will be the main release next week, with the ISM index and the Conference Board's consumer confidence also out. Inflation will be a global theme – the US PCE, flash CPIs in Europe and the Tokyo CPI in Japan are all due. A busy week for Asia will also feature Chinese PMIs, the BoJ's Tankan survey and September meeting summary of opinions, as well as the RBA's decision. Our US economists expect payrolls to rise by +45k in September, down from +162k in August, with both the unemployment rate (4.1%) and MoM average hourly earnings growth (+0.3%) unchanged. Our US economics team forecast core PCE at +0.27% MoM for August, with personal income rising by +0.5% MoM and consumption by +0.6%. DB forecast the September ISM manufacturing index to rise to 55.1 from 54.6 and the Conference Board's consumer confidence index to 91.0 from 89.4. For the Eurozone, our European economists forecast headline HICP at 3.75% YoY with core at 2.53%. In Japan, Tokyo core inflation ex