CEEMEA Macro & Strategy Weekly

Central banks in CEEMEA delivered divergent policy responses this week against a backdrop of heightened external uncertainty and energy-price risks. Hungary's NBH paused its easing cycle, leaving the policy rate unchanged at 5.50% while lowering its medium-term inflation target to 2.5%. South Africa's SARB turned more hawkish, raising rates by 25bps to 7.25% amid rising energy-driven inflation risks. Nigeria's CBN unexpectedly cut rates by 350bps to 23%, a move we view as a policy recalibration rather than the start of a broader easing cycle. Egypt's CBE kept rates on hold at 19%. For the week ahead, S&P is due to review Romania's sovereign credit rating, where we expect BBB- to be retained despite elevated political uncertainty; Poland's September inflation is expected to rise further on higher fuel prices and energy-related pressures;