报告为瑞银美国利率策略报告（The empire hikes back），核心观点是美联储重启加息。市场已计入未来一年约90个基点的紧缩，且预期这是更广泛加息周期的开启。基于美国经济展望（2026—2028），瑞银预计2026—2027年失业率在4.2%—4.5%区间，通胀温和回落，联邦基金利率中点由2025年的3.625%回升至2026—2027年的4.125%，实际投资增长主要来自AI相关支出。收益率方面，预计2026年底2年期美债收益率4.50%、10年期4.80%，2s/10s曲线趋陡。财政上，预算赤字持续高于GDP的6%，财政部融资缺口在2027财年及以后扩大，预计2027年5月起恢复增加2年至10年期发行规模，长端回购操作将减少净久期供给。投资建议：久期保持耐心，偏好远期曲线陡峭化交易；看多掉期利差并持有5s/30s利差曲线陡峭化；
UBS US Rates Strategy report, "The empire hikes back," argues that the Fed is restarting its hiking cycle. Markets are priced for roughly 90bp of tightening over the next year, with participants expecting the start of a broader tightening cycle. Based on the US Economic Outlook 2026-2028, UBS expects the unemployment rate to hold around 4.2-4.5% in 2026-27, inflation to moderate, and the fed funds midpoint to rise from 3.625% in 2025 to 4.125% in 2026-27, with real investment growth driven mainly by AI-related spending. UBS forecasts 2-year Treasury yields at 4.50% and 10-year yields at 4.80% by year-end 2026, with the 2s/10s curve steepening. Budget deficits are projected to exceed 6% of GDP, and the financing gap widens in FY27 and beyond; Treasury is expected to resume increasing 2s through 10s issuance from May 2027, while larger long-end buybacks reduce net duration supply. Recommendations: remain patient on duration but forward curve steepeners offer value;