本周美国经济数据整体强劲，进一步加大三季度增长上行风险并推高债券收益率。市场将10月美联储加息概率由53%上调至64%，10年期美债收益率再升16个基点至5.16%，市场对联邦基金利率路径的定价较8月大幅上移。多位美联储官员表态偏鹰，但尚未明确支持10月连续加息。下周将公布9月非农就业、年度GDP修订及8月PCE等数据；报告预计非农新增10万人、失业率维持4.1%，核心PCE同比3.3%，而年度修订或上调非劳动收入与储蓄率、并下修核心PCE。9月全行业PMI产出指数升至58.4，为2021年以来最高，隐含约5%的GDP增速，且服务投入价格与供应链瓶颈压力仍存。家庭净资产因股市（尤其是AI相关股票）上涨创历史新高，储蓄率持续下降，报告认为其中大部分属正常财富效应，但近半年降幅加快也与生活成本上升有关。
US economic data this week came in strong, further raising upside risks for 3Q growth and lifting bond yields. Markets raised the probability of an October Fed hike to 64% from 53%, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose another 16bp to 5.16%, with market pricing of the policy path moving sharply higher since August. Fed officials continued to sound hawkish but have not yet made a strong case for an October move. Next week brings September employment, the annual GDP update and the August PCE report; we look for a 100k payroll gain, unemployment holding at 4.1% and 3.3%oya core PCE, while annual revisions are likely to raise non-labor income and the saving rate and to trim core PCE. The September all-industry PMI output measure hit 58.4, the highest since 2021, consistent with around 5% GDP growth, with firm price and supply-chain pressures. Surging household wealth, driven by AI-linked equities, has pushed net worth to a record share of income and lowered the saving rate.