高盛美国经济研究团队分析年底前美国通胀走势。过去三个月核心CPI年化平均2.0%、核心PCE约2.5%。预计未来两个月通胀数据偏不有利：初步预测9月核心CPI环比+0.24%、10月+0.22%。推升因素有二：一是9月机票价格nowcast升至+3%（受航空煤油价格上涨带动），能源及其他大宗商品成本将在未来数月为月度核心通胀贡献3-5个基点；二是劳工统计局为处理去年政府停摆缺失数据而用几何平均插值计算季调因子，估计将使10月季调核心CPI被额外推高约5个基点。此后通胀将重归温和，11月、12月核心CPI预计分别+0.12%、+0.11%，主因租金通胀持续低迷、关税传导基本结束以及车险与医保分项下行（10月至2027年3月医保分项或每月拖累2-3个基点）。核心PCE相对顽固，9-12月预计为0.23%/0.23%/0.16%/0.16%。
The last three months of inflation data have been favorable, with core CPI inflation averaging 2.0% annualized and core PCE inflation averaging an estimated 2.5%. We expect the next two months of inflation data to be somewhat less favorable before a more benign trend reasserts itself, preliminarily forecasting +0.24% for monthly core CPI in September and +0.22% in October. These readings will be boosted by two factors: a nowcast of +3% for September airfares on the back of higher jet fuel prices (with energy and other commodity costs contributing 3-5bp to monthly core inflation for the next few months), and residual seasonality from the BLS's interpolation of data missing because of last year's government shutdown, which we estimate will unduly boost October seasonally-adjusted core CPI inflation by 5bp. Thereafter we expect cooler core CPI readings (November +0.12%, December +0.11%), reflecting continued tepid shelter inflation, limited further tariff-related price increases, and decl