Online Travel Q3’26 Preview: Analyzing the Industry Debates & Estimates

As we head into Q3'26 Online Travel earnings, we frame key industry debates, refresh our operating estimates for industry data and channel checks, and update our 12-month price targets for names under coverage (BKNG Neutral $180, EXPE Buy $310, ABNB Neutral $165, TRIP Buy $11, YOU Buy $66). Our industry work points to a broadly stable to strong end demand environment, with third-party data showing a mixed but generally resilient travel demand backdrop in Q3: short-term rental demand softened in the US and Europe in August, foreign arrivals into the US remained pressured, while global airline capacity stayed above pre-COVID levels and mobile app engagement remained healthy. Building on our broader agentic commerce work, we examine how action-based consumer agents could reshape travel discovery, distribution and booking: we expect trip discovery and planning to scale before agentic-led booking;