本报告为摩根大通EMEA新兴市场展望的附录,共分五部分:外汇储备、欧盟资金、IMF安排与贸易结构;石油敞口与敏感性;主权债务评级与展望、选举日程;国别宏观观点。报告指出,并非所有路径都指向加息。分析显示,多数国家外汇储备充足性总体稳定,但进口覆盖比率普遍下降,许多国家的外汇储备建立于政府对外借款之上,短期外债覆盖率有所改善;欧盟资金是CE4(捷克、匈牙利、波兰、罗马尼亚)增长与国际收支的重要支撑。报告还测算油价上涨10%(每桶+10美元)对各国经常账户、CPI、GDP与财政余额的影响,并给出各石油出口国的预算及外债盈亏平衡油价与主权评级展望。
This appendix to J.P. Morgan's EMEA EM Outlook is organised into five sections: foreign reserves, EU funds, IMF arrangements and trade composition; oil exposure and sensitivities; sovereign debt ratings, reviews and the elections calendar; and country-level macro views. Its central message is that not all roads lead to rate hikes. Reserve adequacy is broadly stable, yet import cover ratios have generally fallen, in many countries gross reserves have been built on government borrowing from foreigners, and coverage of short-term debt has improved. EU funds remain a key source of growth and balance-of-payments support for the CE4 (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania). The report also quantifies the impact of a 10% ($10/bbl) oil price increase on current accounts, CPI, GDP and fiscal balances, and presents budget and external breakeven oil prices alongside sovereign rating outlooks for EMEA EM oil exporters.