Swiss Re (SRENH.S): 3Q’26 earnings preview

Swiss Re reports its 3Q'26 earnings on November 5th. Overall, our net income estimate is 18% below company-collected consensus, primarily driven by a higher nat cat estimate and an assumption that management will continue to build resilience through reserve additions and realised investment losses, as the 2026 earnings trajectory remains on course to exceed its $4.5bn target. As with prior quarters, 3Q is another quarter with a wide range in consensus combined ratio (COR) estimates (76.5% to 86.4%). Our 85.9% is towards the upper end of the range (+4.1ppts vs. consensus), primarily driven by a $145mn higher cats (+3.4ppt), with the largest losses expected from the Colombia earthquake and the July/August European hail storms. We are not expecting any material changes to forward-looking statements or capital return, with the December 4th 2027 Financial targets conference call the most likely event for management to communicate on both. Corporate Solutions COR of 89.5% is in line with con