伯恩斯坦点评宁德时代（300750.SZ/3750.HK）3Q26业绩：尽管出货260GWh、同比增长58%且市占率稳健，但消费税开征、产品结构不利、出口退税下调的滞后效应以及新产能爬坡带来的折旧摊销上升，使单位净利降至0.082元/Wh，低于预期18%，利润压力来自毛利率端而非需求。报告认为利润率仍是核心隐忧：3Q26仅体现一个月消费税影响，2027年出口增值税退税将完全取消、消费税税率翻倍至4%，若成本无法传导，2027-28年经营利润率或降至约10%，二线电池厂盈利可能被抹平，行业整合加速、公司有望成为"最后站着的人"。下调2026/27年盈利预测11%/25%至920亿/930亿元，A股目标价由770元下调至480元、H股由740港元下调至460港元，分别对应2028年21倍/18倍PE，维持跑赢行业评级。
CATL's 3Q26 earnings missed expectations as profitability weakened despite strong shipment growth of 260GWh (+58% YoY, in line with our estimate). The decline was mainly driven by the consumption tax, unfavorable product mix, a lagging effect from the export VAT rebate cut and higher DD&A from new capacity ramp-up, leading to an RMB 2 cents/Wh drop in unit profit, 18% below our estimate. Importantly, the earnings pressure came from the gross profit level rather than demand, with shipment growth and market share remaining resilient. Margin pressure remains the key overhang: 3Q26 only reflected one month of the consumption tax effect, while export VAT rebate phase-out and a doubling of the consumption tax rate hit in 2027. Assuming no cost pass-through, we think operating margin could trend toward ~10% in 2027-28E, which could wipe out profitability for Tier 2 players and accelerate industry consolidation. We cut our 2026/27 earnings forecasts by 11% and 25% to RMB91bn and RMB93bn, and l