美银全球外汇周报指出，9月美联储以鹰派姿态加息，声明删除通胀部分源于供给冲击的表述，SEP上修增长与通胀、下修失业率，主席Warsh强调抗通胀任务尚未完成；团队维持年内10月和12月各加息25个基点的判断。美元指数随后走高，但未突破夏季高点，因全球数据惊喜趋于平衡、美元持仓接近中性，上行空间受限。日央行会议是关键，市场加息定价相对合理，但需警惕鸽派委员Asada和Sato投反对票；维持看多日元，预计年底USD/JPY为149、EUR/USD为1.15。特朗普与习近平峰会预计将把现有贸易休战延长一年，稳定中美关系有助缓解美元上行尾部风险。新兴市场方面，套息交易拥挤、趋势转空且美债收益率走高，低收益亚洲货币（MYR、THB）下行风险最大，仍偏好INR与CNY。交易推荐包括卖出USD/JPY、买入NZD及AUD/SGD等。
G10 FX: Fed raises the hawkish bar but not the USD ceiling. Still yen bulls but watch for BoJ dissents. US-China stability mitigates an upside USD risk. EM FX: emerging cracks — crowded carry trades, bearish trends and higher US yields raise downside risks, especially for low-yield Asia FX. We stick with our call for two more hikes this year, in October and December, and forecast USD/JPY at 149 by year-end and EUR/USD at 1.15. The Fed hike was hawkish on all fronts: no dissents, stronger SEP revisions and Chair Warsh making clear the job isn't done, but a credibly hawkish Fed is not sufficient for USD to rally beyond summer highs given more balanced data surprises and neutral USD positioning. The BoJ meeting raises the stakes, with dissents from doves the key risk to our long JPY bias versus USD and CHF. We expect the Trump-Xi summit to extend the trade truce by one year, preserving stability and mitigating an upside USD tail risk. In EM, positioning is becoming a meaningful concern as