美银美林《全球经济周报》指出，美联储如期加息且沟通偏鹰，主席沃什重申金融条件宽松、增长强劲、资本开支繁荣、劳动力市场稳健及通胀过高是加息理由。报告维持10月与12月再各加息25个基点（全周期共75bp）的预测，但市场已定价约100bp，属"定价过度"；美银认为美国以外（欧洲央行、英国央行、加拿大央行）的加息预期偏离更大。美国方面，名义支出同比增6.3%，核心PCE停滞在约2.5%，加息有助于防止长端利率与通胀预期脱锚，且若供应冲击持续，美联储或在通胀长期超调与硬着陆之间抉择。欧元区企业健康度指标一季度已落入"脆弱"区间，融资条件与需求疲软拖累盈利，尤以德法为甚。英国央行以6比3维持利率不变、立场转鹰，若能源涨价持续，11月加息或成基准情形，但市场定价近四次加息过于激进。此外报告还覆盖澳新厄尔尼诺干旱风险、肯尼亚大选前维持现状，以及墨西哥主权评级承压等议题。
As expected, the Fed hiked and communication was hawkish. Our view has been that rate hikes were necessary in the US, and Warsh stated many of the reasons that we have argued: loose financial conditions, strong growth, the capex boom, a solid labor market, and inflation that remains too high. We expect the Fed to deliver an additional 50bp of hikes in October and December. The market is pricing the hiking cycle close to perfection, with about 75bp of additional hikes (around 100bp for the cycle), which is more than our 75bp forecast. We see markets overpricing rate hikes, perhaps not as much for the Fed but more so for the ECB, the BoE, or the BoC. Nominal spending is up 6.3% y/y and core PCE is stuck around 2.5%, so the Fed has little choice but to tighten. In the Euro area, our corporate health measure moved into "vulnerable" territory in 1Q26. The BoE delivered a hawkish hold with a 6-3 vote, and we keep our call of no hikes this year under review, though we view market pricing of c