伯恩斯坦发布百威亚太（1876.HK）的模型更新报告。报告指出，受渠道结构变化、即饮及即时零售渠道承压影响，中国区三季度销量下滑幅度较二季度扩大，价格与产品组合基本持平，EBITDA利润率因经营性去杠杆及销售和物流成本上升而承压；韩国区三季度销量同样弱于上半年，场外渠道占比上升拖累价格组合。此外，公司宣布的中国预提税支出、与重组相关的准备金以及回收延迟付款拨备等一次性费用将冲击三季度盈利。基于上述因素，报告下调了亚太东西区及集团层面对EBITDA和盈利的预测，并将估值基准前移。投资建议方面，维持「与大市同步」（Market-Perform）评级，但因下调盈利预测而下调目标价。
Bernstein maintains a Market-Perform rating on Budweiser Brewing Co APAC Ltd (1876.HK) while cutting its price target and rolling the valuation base forward. China is expected to post a weak Q3, with volume declines worsening versus Q2 while price/mix is broadly flat, and EBITDA margins under incremental pressure from operational deleverage and rising selling and logistics costs. Korea's volume performance is also weak in Q3, with an increasing off-trade mix weighing on price mix. Two one-off charges announced by the company — including withholding tax expenses in China, restructuring-related provisions, and a provision reflecting risk on delayed payments — will hit Q3 EPS. As a result, Bernstein cuts its EBITDA growth forecasts for APAC East and West and lowers group-level EBITDA and earnings estimates, with the stock now trading below historical average valuation multiples. Investment recommendation: maintain Market-Perform.