Prada SpA (1913.HK): Q3 Preview: Normalization Meets Uncertainty

This is UBS's Q3 preview on Prada SpA (1913.HK). Prada is scheduled to report Q3 results on 22 October after the Hong Kong market close. UBS forecasts Q3 group revenue of €1,488m, translating into +1% organic sales growth. By channel, it expects DTC revenue of €1,282m (+0% OSG) and wholesale revenue of €152m. At the brand level, it forecasts retail OSG of +1% for Prada and 0% for Miu Miu, while modelling Versace retail sales of €92m. In FY27, UBS now forecasts +3% OSG, with the Prada brand +2% OSG and Miu Miu +3% OSG, and forecasts EBIT of €1,242m with a margin of 18.8%. Investors' focus is likely to be on: (1) sequential retail trends at Prada by customer nationality; (2) the extent of Miu Miu's quarter-on-quarter deceleration; (3) the timing and regional drivers of space contribution for both Prada and Miu Miu; (4) the scope for margin expansion in 2026;