Post-IPO pullback overstates BYD insourcing risk; Stellantis win validates global expansion visibility

BOCI maintains BUY on Momenta Global. Since its IPO in early July, Momenta's share price has corrected over 50%, which we attribute to weak sector beta and company-specific concerns over pricing power, margin stability, and potential revenue downside from BYD's in-house ADAS development. We view the sell-off as overstating BYD insourcing risk: the core issue is pricing rather than technology, and BYD's shift to an in-house stack is far from certain. While BYD is expected to account for ~40% of 2026 new installations, we estimate it contributes only ~20% of total revenue. Momenta's recent global partnership with DPCA Technology (Dongfeng-Stellantis JV) covers four Peugeot and Jeep models with ~2.0m units of estimated lifecycle volume over five years, split roughly evenly between China and overseas, validating global expansion visibility. Even in a bear case where Momenta loses 100% of BYD revenue in 2027, total revenue could still reach RMB5.5-6.0bn, implying just 5-6x 2027E P/S. We con