CMOC A/H: First Take: 3Q26 slight miss; cost inflation and cash flow key to monitor

CMOC’s 3Q26 attributable NPAT came in at Rmb7.9bn (+175% YoY, -6% QoQ), bringing 9M26 attributable NPAT to Rmb24.0bn (+68% YoY), tracking 73% of Bloomberg consensus. The results were weaker than expected, mainly due to higher-than-expected copper unit costs, a 2% QoQ decline in copper shipments to 191kt, and negative OCF and FCF in 3Q26. Cobalt sales volume rose 86% QoQ to 6.9kt. 9M26 production volumes across key metals remained broadly on track with FY26 guidance. We expect modest downward revisions to FY26 consensus earnings and await management guidance on cost inflation, sales pace, and DRC cobalt export quota execution. Maintain Overweight, with an A-share PT of Rmb26 and an H-share PT of HK$25.