天齐锂业 (002466.SZ): Tianqi Lithium 3Q26 - Bullish inventory, bearish prices. Which one is right?

Bernstein's quick take on Tianqi Lithium's 3Q26 results. 3Q26 attributable net profit was RMB1.36bn (+1,324% y-o-y), EPS RMB0.79, 14% ahead of consensus of RMB0.693; gross margin held at 63.0% and operating profit reached RMB3.94bn. Greenbushes CGP3 has reached its 500ktpa design capacity, 9M26 operating cash flow reached RMB5.65bn (+157% y-o-y) and capex fell 40% y-o-y. However, lithium carbonate prices fell 11% q-o-q to ~$18k/t in 3Q26 and further to ~$15k/t, dragging attributable net profit down 43% q-o-q on revenue of RMB6.04bn (-15% q-o-q); SQM associate income means underlying earnings from wholly owned lithium operations weakened more than headline net profit. The report argues fundamentals are tighter than prices suggest: China lithium carbonate inventory is ~103kt, about half the mid-year level of 208kt, down ~28kt since early September to ~24 days; LFP demand remains resilient;