瑞银美国宏观经济周报（2026年10月2日）：本周美联储官员表态与数据将市场对10月加息的隐含概率压低至约22%（约5个基点）。通胀数据下修以及弱于预期的9月非农就业报告（仅新增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%，平均时薪环比仅增0.1%）均指向10月按兵不动。我们维持美联储10月不加息、下次加息25个基点落在12月的预测。国民账户年度修正显示经济规模被上调，但增长仍高度依赖AI，劳动报酬占国内收入比重首次跌破50%，收入上修主要来自利息收入（归属资产持有者），经济韧性分布不均的问题依旧。修正后12个月核心PCE通胀降至3.01%，我们预计四季度核心PCE为2.95%。移民与消费方面，储蓄率上修至4.4%但仍低于去年同期，实际支出增速持续快于收入。下周关注FOMC会议纪要、纽约联储SCE与密歇根消费者调查及8月贸易数据。
The comments from Federal Reserve officials pushed market-implied odds of an October rate hike below 50-50 this week, despite officials avoiding forward guidance. The downward revisions to inflation released this week, alongside an employment report that undid the sense of strengthening, also broke in that direction. We left unchanged our projection for the next 0.25 pp rate hike in December, and our assumption the FOMC remains on hold in October. The annual revisions made the economy look bigger, but not broader. Growth is still almost entirely tied to AI. Labor compensation's share of domestic income has fallen below 50% for the first time on record. Nonfarm payroll employment expanded just 29K in September, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%, and average hourly earnings rose just 0.1%. The BEA annual revisions lowered 12-month core PCE inflation through August to 3.01%, and we expect core PCE inflation to be 2.95% in Q4. The Week Ahead focuses on the FOMC minutes, the New York F