本报告为高盛「全球外汇交易员」系列，对美元、新兴市场货币、欧元、瑞郎、英镑、澳元、罗马尼亚列伊以及外汇持仓进行分析。报告认为，美元在第四季度初处于年内相对强势位置，若美国增长更具韧性、金融条件收紧程度超出其他地区，美元有望突破区间走强，但当前判断为时过早，在低波动交易环境下逢极端持仓反向操作更为有利，因此倾向于战术性做空美元。新兴市场货币方面，利差交易的平仓并不均衡，拉美货币明显跑输。欧元在财政压力上升时贬值，其对主权利差的beta在信用风险主导时显著上升。瑞郎作为欧洲避险货币走强，但报告认为其基本面担忧较历史更轻。英镑方面，英国财政纪律及对欧关系改善构成支撑，但下行风险仍存。澳元面临双向风险，偏好做空欧元兑澳元。列伊中长期偏向贬值，报告上调了欧元兑列伊的预测。外汇持仓方面，报告认为在低波动环境下应反向操作极端持仓。
Global FX Trader: Our thoughts on USD, EM FX, EUR, CHF, GBP, AUD, RON & FX Positioning. The Dollar starts the fourth quarter at its strongest point all year, and we have argued it could strengthen and break out of its range-bound trading environment if US growth proves more durable and tightens financial conditions more than the rest of the world can withstand. We see this as supportive of our thesis that this is a possible route to a stronger Dollar, but think it is too early to press on this theme, and in a lower-vol trading regime it is profitable to fade extreme positioning, which argues for some tactical Dollar shorts. In EM FX, the carry unwind has been unequal, with LatAm currencies the clear underperformers. We discuss the Euro's response to rising fiscal pressures, the Swiss Franc's sharp appreciation as the European safe-haven currency, Sterling's reaction to UK macro developments, two-sided risks for the Aussie, and another steep adjustment in EUR/RON.